Trends in constructing the EU defence edifice: A Neofunctionalist Account Using Fuzzy Sets and Risk Identification

Abstract

This thesis examines the evolution of the European Union’s defence architecture through an integrated analysis of institutional developments and subsequent individual perceptions. Drawing on 95 key documents spanning 1992–2020 and questionnaires from Greece as a case study, it assesses trends in the EU defence edifice using Schmitter’s neofunctionalist framework. The analysis focuses on spillover, retrenchment, and related integration dynamics across the political, procedural, economic, and military dimensions that collectively constitute the EU’s defence concept.The document analysis, grounded in fuzzy‑set logic, reveals a shift from political deliberation toward procedural structuring, signalling the maturation of the Common Security and Defence Policy (CSDP). At the same time, it indicates a prevailing tendency toward retrenchment, tempered by limited signs of spillover. Survey findings, informed by risk‑identification techniques, underscore concerns regarding the EU’s currently insufficient defence capabilities and the potential dominance of powerful Member States in the event of deeper integration, highlighting a persistent tension between aspirations for supranational cohesion and enduring intergovernmentalism.Although respondents express support for deeper defence cooperation, mistrust in the EU’s inclusiveness constrains the transfer of loyalty that neofunctionalist theory identifies as essential for integration. Overall, the study concludes that full defence integration is unlikely in the near term and instead points to an emerging pattern of “à‑la‑carte differentiation,” which further hinders the EU’s strategic autonomy. Nonetheless, gradual convergence and incremental spillover dynamics—particularly in the economic dimension—suggest scope for deeper collaboration, provided that the procedural and military dimensions acquire more consistently supranational characteristics and that a meaningful transfer of loyalty begins to materialize in the field of defence. In this context, the thesis introduces the double rule, a conceptual ratio illustrating the extent to which supranational features must outweigh intergovernmental ones for integration dynamics to gain traction—thereby offering a measurable benchmark for assessing the EU’s future defence trajectory.